Larry Sabato has his take on what may be George Allen's big Monday announcement.
If the economy recovers before 2012, then Obama will pour resources into Virginia—which he carried in 2008 with 52.6%, a better showing than in Florida or North Carolina. Obama won’t want to lose all his Southern states, and a big Virginia presidential turnout could produce substantial coattails for the Democratic nominee. After all, it is very hard to imagine many voters choosing a split-ticket of Obama and Allen.
But if Obama and the economy fare poorly in ’12, or if Virginia Democrats can’t get their act together quickly, then Virginia’s recent Republican trend could continue. George Allen might join the circle of politics’ comeback kids, such as Dan Coats and Jerry Brown. Plan on a long, hot, nasty, and expensive campaign.