After Public Policy Polling released its poll Tuesday, bloggers began looking at the party ID as the reason for the four-point margin. I was so proud. Especially a few hours later, when Survey USA's poll showed a 10-point improvement for Bob McDonnell and nearly the same change in the party ID. (eight-plus for Democrats to three-plus for Republicans).
It's nice that Public Policy Polling got last year right. But changes in its McDonnell lead since August seem to have matched the change in party ID in its polls. Nothing wrong with that, but it helps explain the surge as much as what was going on in the campaign.
With so many polls out there, looking at party ID seems like a way to identify which ones really have the pulse of the race, and which might be outliers.
Last year, the Democrats ran the starting quarterback against Norm, the angry troll. This year, nobody would call Creigh Deeds an attractive star who draws voters to him. Mister Outshine Everybody (Terry McAuliffe) burned out before the June primary.
We have five weeks to go and probably many polls to check.
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