Megan McArdle examines the problems with political predictions - including those who think Hillary Clinton has the inside track in 2016.
Other reasons to think that Democrats might have difficulty include the fact that the longer your party holds the White House, the harder it gets to hold onto it, as voters long for a change and the odds of a scandal rise. To be sure, economic growth and low oil prices are improving Barack Obama's approval ratings, which will help whoever follows. On the other hand, if Al Gore could barely grind to a statistical tie after the 1990s boom, then I wouldn't count on these to carry Clinton over the finish line -- even if they last, which they might well not.
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