Megan McArdle looks behind the health insurance numbers in Vermont.
Per Kaiser, 5 percent of Vermont’s population, or about 31,000 people, bought individual policies before Obamacare. Eight percent, or 50,000 people, are uninsured; some of those will be expected to move onto the exchange. And this source says that “An estimated 118,000 individuals and employees from the small group market will be served by the health benefits exchange in the first year.”
In other words, Vermont is supposed to sign up 20 percent of its population through the exchanges, 12 percent of whom must have had some other form of insurance. And unlike in other states, the law offered no way for those people to buy insurance outside of the exchanges.
That means that in theory, almost 10 percent of the population of Vermont needs to sign up for insurance in the first three weeks of December, just to avoid losing coverage.
Doesn't sound like the success story they say it is.