Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Can polls oversample Democrats more?

How bad are the recent polls on the presidential race?
The one showing Obama winning Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania?
When Quinnipiac asked its swing state samples, “Did you vote for Barack Obama or John McCain in 2008? Obama enjoys a 13 percentage point margin in Florida and a 15 percentage point margin in Ohio. Of course, in 2008, Obama won Florida by three percentage points and Ohio by 4.6 percentage points.
So these are some really heavily Democrat samples.
Pretty soon, they will be touting a new poll with Obama up 50-45. The sample will be 600 Democrats and three Republicans.
Maybe somebody did a poll today, when most of the world was in line at Chick-fil-A.

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