Megan McArdle tries to get a handle on how Obamcare is doing going into the second year of open enrollment.
Remembering that a big test comes from those who didn't enroll in 2014.
Another thing to keep in mind, however: This open enrollment period isn't the biggest test for Obamacare in the next 12 months. The biggest test will be what happens on or around April 15th. That's the first time all the people who didn't buy insurance will get hit with the individual mandate penalty, and the ones who thought that it was a nominal $95 fee are in for a nasty shock . April 15th will also be the first time that people who got too much in subsidies are going to be asked to pay back some of that money.
But will we have to wait until April 15 to see that impact?
How about February 15?
If you expect a tax refund, you file as soon as you can. You get your W-2 and sent it in.
H.R. Block will give you a loan in advance of your refund.
Except if there's no refund coming.
Soon after the W-2 come out, some people who usually have refunds will get their big surprise.
And they will not be happy.
What will Obamacare supporters do then?