Thursday, September 27, 2012

Inside poll-itics

Nate Silver has a new analysis up.
Don Surber has the verdict - Nate Silver is full of crap.
Silver tries to explain Rasmussen being more pro-Romney than the rest of pollsters.
Surber has the answer.

From Wikipedia: "In December 2009, Alan Abramowitz wrote that if Rasmussen's data was accurate, Republicans would gain 62 seats in the House during the 2010 midterm elections. In a column written the week before...
the 2010 midterm elections, Rasmussen stated his belief that Republicans would gain at least 55 seats in the House and end up with 48 or 49 Senate seats. Republicans ended up gaining 63 seats in the House, and coming away with 47 Senate seats.
And Nate dares to say Rasmussen was the most biased and inaccurate pollster in 2010??? I realize he's an opinion writer and can say whatever he wants. That does not mean he is any less full of crap.
Silver's data shows Obama's popularity down in 36 of the 50 states. Hard to see how he's doing better than his 2008 performance with numbers like that.
UPDATE: Linked in the comments at Althouse.

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