Larry Sabato and friends look at the race right now.
What about the rumbling, bumbling, stumbling leader among Democrats?
Consider this: As long as the email mess doesn’t sink her, Clinton could lose both heavily white Iowa and New Hampshire, and still have a fairly unobstructed path to the nomination because of her mighty position with women and minorities. This is true even if Vice President Joe Biden enters the race.
This is not to say Hillary can’t find a way to blow it. Her inept early campaigning and bungled handling of the email controversy underline the inadequacies that helped Obama beat Clinton in 2008. But beating Hillary in 2016 would be much tougher than it was last time.