Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Inside the numbers

Blue Virginia has been touting Public Policy Polling's recent work in Virginia.
Is it good news for Democrats, so just a poor sample of the electorate? Let's look inside the numbers.
This poll has a breakdown of 35% Republicans, 36% Democrats and 30% Independents.
It's 37% Conservative, 19% Liberal and 44% Moderate.
How does this compare to the final 2009 pre-election poll? The one that had Bob McDonnell up 14 points - when his final margin was 18 points.
Then, it was 35% Republicans, 35% Democrats and 30% Independents. Basically the same.
But it was 43% Conservative, 40% Moderate and 16% Liberals. Using a few more liberals and a few less conservatives should bring a poll more to Democrats' likings.
And the 2009 poll was likely voters, not just voters as in 2010.
Bottom line, Democrats still need to sweat 2012. And will keep sweating as the day gets closer.
Filtered good news in 2010 does not mean good news in 2012.

1 comment:

Mark @ Israel said...

Even if the poll reveals that the Democrats have an advantage over the Republicans, they should still work it out and not be complacent. Anything can happen from now until the elections on 2012. The Dems should not just sit back and relax.