Guesses, based on too little data

Megan McArdle tries to tease some information out of the latest Obamacare numbers.
The good news is that pretty soon, we’ll find out what the insurers are thinking; they’ll start filing some of their preliminary rate increases in a couple of weeks. My guess would be that those increases will be modest in places such as New York, which had a lot of signups -- and had also nearly destroyed its private insurance market, so that almost any reform would have been an improvement. My guess would be that in other places, where the signups are too old or too few, premiums will jump sharply.
The debate continues.