Karl Rove gives his reasons for seeing Romney winning Tuesday.
One potentially dispositive question is what mix of Republicans and Democrats
will show up this election. On Friday last week, Gallup hinted at the partisan
makeup of the 2012 electorate with a small chart buried at the end of its daily
tracking report. Based on all its October polling, Gallup suggested that this
year's turnout might be 36% Republican to 35% Democratic, compared with 39%
Democratic and 29% Republican in 2008, and 39% Republican and 37% Democratic in
2004. If accurate, this would be real trouble for Mr. Obama, since Mr. Romney
has consistently led among independents in most October surveys.
More Republican voters in 2012 than 2008.
Not good numbers for the Democrats.