Can we compare the campaigns of Conservative Doug Hoffman with President Obama's 2008 run? Yes, we can.
Look at the opponents. Hillary/Dede Scozzafava were both the establishment candidates.
Obama/Hoffman were the insurgents.
How about key endorsements? Ted Kennedy's endorsement of Obama showed the party regulars that it was cool to endorse the insurgent.
Sarah Palin's endorsement of Hoffman pushed him to another level, and forced other Republicans to make a decision.
Look at how the enthusiasm for the insurgent has swamped establishment candidate. The "look at all my experience and knowledge of your issues" hasn't worked.
Now, which insurgent will do a better job? When it comes to the budget, I trust an accountant more than a community organizer/lawyer/writer.
UPDATE: Linked by Ferdinand over at the-spearhead.com