Tuesday, June 9, 2009

What death spiral?

Here's my first guest editorial at NTCnews.

For those who say the Republican party is in a death spiral, how come Republican candidates lead by double digits in this year's two gubernatorial elections?
In New Jersey, Chris Christie leads incumbent Jon Corzine 51-38 in the latest Rasmussen Poll. In Virginia, three Democrats are beating each other up for the right to face Bob McDonnell in November.
Christie has led Corzine for several months in polling, as having “Wall Street Wizard” on your resume doesn’t seem helpful this election year.
In my home state of Virginia, Democrats thought they had the state going in their direction. Instead, their fractures are showing as another big talker – Terry McAuliffe – has failed to pull away despite big money and big endorsements.
It recalls 1992-93, when Republicans won both states after Bill Clinton’s election. They won with a cowboy conservative – George Allen in Virginia – and a moderate in Christie Todd Whitman, setting the stage for the 1994 takeover of Congress.
The Democrats’ road to holding these seats grows harder each day. Because their best attacks revolve around scaring voters about the past.
Corzine opened his re-election campaign Tuesday by bashing former President George W. Bush. Sorry, he’s gone back to Texas.
The Democrats’ anti-Bob McDonnell website features Pat Robertson. If Jerry Falwell were still alive, he’d be there too. But McDonnell’s favorability polling continues to surpass his Democratic rivals.
Winning both of these states would do wonders for the GOP. It creates a positive bandwagon effect, and in Virginia would keep control of redistricting in Republican hands.
Better yet, the Democrats will be at each others’ throats with losses. Their confidence and cockiness will take a hit. The news story won’t be Limbaugh vs. Frum, but angry Democrats feeling the magic slip away.

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